The latest forecasts suggest that 2026 will bring a slowly warming but still challenging real estate market: mortgage rates are expected to drift a bit lower but stay around the low-6% range, while home prices mostly notch modest gains rather than big swings. Economists generally see more inventory, slightly higher sales, and a shift toward a more balanced, somewhat more buyer-friendly market in many areas, not a full-blown boom or bust.​

Big picture for 2026

Most major housing forecasters anticipate a “reset, not a rebound” in 2026, with the market moving away from the extremes of the pandemic era into something closer to normal. Rather than sharp price drops or another rapid run-up, the consensus points to subdued price growth, modest sales gains, and affordability that improves slowly as rates ease and incomes rise.​

Mortgage rate predictions

Multiple outlooks expect the 30‑year fixed mortgage rate to average somewhere in the low-6% range through 2026, with some projections putting year‑end levels just under 6%. Realtor.com pegs average 2026 rates around 6.3%, while Fannie Mae’s economic team sees them ending the year near 5.9%, and most experts agree that pandemic‑era 3% mortgages are not coming back soon.​

Home prices and value growth

Forecasts from Fannie Mae, Zillow, NAR and others generally call for modest national home price gains in 2026, typically in the 1–4% range. Zillow, for example, projects about 1.2% growth in U.S. home values, Realtor.com expects roughly 2.2%, and NAR sees around 4%, while warning that some individual cities could see small price dips.​

Home sales and inventory

Several forecasts point to a small but meaningful pickup in transactions as lower rates unlock pent‑up demand and more owners list their homes. NAR projects a roughly 14% jump in existing‑home sales in 2026, Fannie Mae expects sales to rise to about 5.16 million, and Realtor.com sees sales up about 1.7% with active listings growing nearly 9% but still below pre‑2020 norms.​

Market balance and what it means for you

Realtor.com describes 2026 as the most balanced housing market since before the pandemic, with about 4.6 months of supply nationwide and slightly more leverage shifting toward buyers in many metros. At the same time, economists stress that affordability will remain a hurdle, especially for first‑time buyers, so success in 2026 will depend on local conditions, flexible expectations, and careful budgeting even as conditions slowly improve.​