The 2026 real estate market is expected to feel calmer than the pandemic boom years, with modest home price growth, slightly better affordability, and a slow but noticeable pickup in sales activity. Mortgage rates are widely projected to hover in the mid‑5% to mid‑6% range, which should coax more buyers and sellers off the sidelines without triggering a frenzy.​

Big picture for 2026

Most major housing economists describe 2026 as a reset year rather than a full‑blown rebound.​
Forecasts from Zillow, NAR, and others point to modest national home value gains of roughly 1–4%, which is far cooler than the double‑digit spikes seen earlier in the decade.​
Existing home sales are expected to increase from 2025’s subdued levels but remain below pre‑pandemic norms, as affordability pressures and tight inventory linger.​

Home prices and inventory

Several leading forecasts expect low single‑digit price growth nationally in 2026, with Zillow near 1–2% and NAR closer to 4%.​
This slow growth reflects a better balance between supply and demand: inventory is improving from pandemic lows, but structural shortages and construction bottlenecks still prevent a true buyer’s market in many metros.​
Regionally, economists anticipate softer performance in some Sun Belt and recently overheated markets, while job‑rich, supply‑constrained areas are more likely to see steady appreciation.​

Mortgage rates and affordability

Most outlooks cluster around 6% for a 30‑year fixed mortgage in 2026, with Redfin, Realtor.com, Fannie Mae, and the National Association of Home Builders all projecting roughly 6.0–6.3% on average.​
Some scenarios see rates drifting into the high‑5% range if inflation continues to cool, but very few credible forecasts expect a return to sub‑5% borrowing costs soon.​
Housing affordability should improve slightly as incomes grow faster than prices and rates edge down, yet high absolute price levels will keep many first‑time buyers stretched.​

Sales volume and regional splits

Forecasts suggest a modest increase in existing‑home sales, with estimates generally in the 4.1–4.5 million range and some, like NAR, calling for a double‑digit percentage jump from 2025.​
Analysts expect the Southeast and parts of the West to lead the sales recovery, where demand is highly sensitive to mortgage rates and has already begun to respond to lower borrowing costs.​
Even so, several experts stress that 2026 is more likely to showcase a patchwork of hot, stable, and soft markets than a uniform national surge.​

Key takeaways for buyers, sellers, and investors

• Buyers:
  • More negotiating power than during the frenzy, but not a collapse in prices.​
  • Focus on payment, not just price—at ~6% rates, small rate moves can meaningfully change your monthly costs.​
• Sellers:
  • Expect longer days on market and fewer bidding wars, but still‑solid pricing in most areas.​
  • Presentation and pricing strategy will matter more in 2026 than during the easy‑sell boom years.​
• Investors:
  • Slower appreciation means returns will lean more on cash flow and rent growth than quick flips.​
  • Markets with strong job growth and constrained new construction remain the most attractive for long‑term holds.